Keinänen, Anssi
Tilastollinen analyysi rikostaloustieteessä. Teoria ja käytäntö.
Abstract
It is not often that a researcher gets to handle a theme that even the layman has clear opinions and knowledge of. Crime is one such theme. Every one of us is a potential victim of crime, and this fact affects our everyday behaviour. Furthermore, crime causes enormous costs to the society. According to studies these costs can vary between three and thirteen percent of a country’s GDP.
Although crime affects our daily lives and its costs to society are huge, it is surprising that there is so little research on crime done in economics. There is a great need for an empirical study of crime in the field of economics not only in Finland but in the rest of Europe as well.
Traditionally, the main purpose of economics crime studies is to explain the number of crimes, but the interests of economics crime research are much wider. The different approaches of criminal studies set different challenges on the empirical methods and data used in the studies. One of the purposes of this doctoral dissertation is to highlight problems that arise and will recur in empirical crime studies. By taking these problems into account, the research may provide more reliable results. Another purpose of this study is to empirically examine current topics in Finnish economics crime research, such as punishment practices and the relationship between alcohol consumption and violent crimes.
The empirical problems highlighted in this study are related to the possibilities of using the data, choosing the statistical methods, switching over from theoretical observation to empirical patterns, measuring variables and interpreting the results. For instance, at its simplest the relations between crimes and other variables have been analyzed by computing the correlations or drawing figures of the variation between different variables. The causes and effects of the crime patterns are, however, very complicated. There are many factors which simultaneously influence crime, and thus observing the correlation solely between two variables does not result in a reliable picture of crime, but rather a false one. Consequently, more sophisticated statistical methods are required to ensure reliable results.
Furthermore, several problems arise in economics crime studies with the transition from theoretical to empirical analysis. The greatest problem in explaining the number of crimes is that all economic theories treat crime as an individual choice, but most empirical studies are made using macro data. Furthermore, the nature of crimes is so heterogeneous that one can be sure that a single theoretical model will be inadequate to explain the various types of crime. Different theoretical models are, therefore, necessary to explain criminal behaviour. It is also important to study the effect of the theoretical model selected on the choice of variables in the empirical analysis. Often the variables selected reflect the available data more than the actual theoretical model.
The empirical part of the doctoral thesis examines, for instance, how the severity of the punishment and the probability of a specific type of punishment change in practice as the graveness of the crime increases. The fact that more serious crimes are punished more severely is in accordance with the principle of marginal deterrence as well as the principles of criminal law concerning the degree of punishment. On the basis of empirical results it can be stated that graver acts are punished more severely, and attempted crime results in lighter penalties than the crime itself. These results support the idea that punishment should be in proportion to the harmfulness of the act. On the other hand, there were possible inequities in the application of punishment that should be investigated in greater detail with better statistical data.
It was long ago observed in criminological research that the propensity to commit crimes decreases with age. This dissertation examines the age distribution of criminals in Finland. The empirical results indicated that the relationship between age and crime in Finland is not as universal as criminological research usually shows it to be. For instance, in cases of involuntary homicides and aggravated drunk driving the age distribution of the criminals is fairly even. The crimes against property, on the other hand, has a clear downward trend in relation to the age of the criminal. The older the person, the lower the propensity of the crime. When examining the results it should be remembered, for instance, that to achieve a more effective criminal policy it would be important to better assess the factors affecting the age distribution of the criminals. The simple age of the criminal does not provide an adequate explanation for why young people commit more crimes against property than older people.
This doctoral dissertation also addresses the need to develop economics crime research methods and studies in Finland. The most important improvement would be to develop the empirical economic crime research databases so that the empirical analyses become more reliable. The research databases are composed of different sources, data types and aggregation levels, and every database has its own strengths and weaknesses. For instance, the number of crimes reported to the police is used as an descriptive variable when explaining the number of crimes, even though it is obvious that only a part of all crimes are reported.
The lack of data on the individual level is a major problem in Finnish economic crime research. More material on individual people could be obtained from police registers as well as statistics concerning victims and offenders. Victim statistics as well as the number of crimes reported to the police, are useful in estimating the total number of crimes. Furthermore, the availability of court decisions should be improved in order to develop the research on the criminal process. By employing different databases, the costs of crime incurred by society could be estimated more accurately. For instance, insurance company data on crime victims and compensation payments is a totally overlooked data source in Finland.
Keywords: Age distribution of criminals, Alcohol consumption, Criminality, Econometrics, Economic crime research, Punishment practice, Rational behaviour, Statistical analysis
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